Investment Portfolio Discipline Summary
“The performance measurement fund invests in stocks whenever the market maker’s hedging activity predicts that 80% or more of the upcoming price range is expected to be up and 10% or less may be on the decline.
At the time of each purchase, a GTC sell order for all the shares just purchased is placed with the broker where they were purchased. His system will monitor and direct you to the sale confirmation once completed, possibly with incentives for reinvestment.
At the time of purchase, only on your own personal private calendar, note to review this credit note 3 months after purchase, then, if it is not yet sold, but the price is at a loss, sell and put the proceeds in the reinvestment stream. If you win, after considering alternatives, decide to sell or move the calendar note one month further.”
Description of the lead investment applicant
“TechTarget, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing and sales services that have business impact for business-to-business technology companies in North America and internationally. It also provides marketing and sales services of purchase intent for enterprise technology providers; and personalized marketing programs that integrate demand generation, brand advertising techniques, and content curation and creation. It also operates a integrated content that consists of a network of approximately 150 websites and 1,080 webinars and virtual event channels that focus on a specific IT industry, such as storage, security, or networking. Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Newton, Mass. – Source: Yahoo Finances
Alternative Marketing Services Industry Investment Comparison
Here are several companies similar to TechTarget, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTGT). Following the same analysis as with TTGT, a historical sampling of today’s risk-reward balances was taken for each of the alternative investments. They are mapped in Figure 1.
(used with permission).
The expected rewards for these securities are the largest gains over the current market closing price, which is worth protecting short positions. Their measurement is on the horizontal green scale.
The risk dimension is that of actual price declines at their most extreme while being held in the previous pursuit of upward rewards similar to those currently seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale.
Both scales are percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose current risk exposure exceeds its reward outlook will be above the dotted diagonal line. The attractive buying capital gain issues are found in the down and right directions.
Our main interest is the TTGT on site , to the right of the green price growth reward ladder. A standard “market index” of reward~risk trade-offs is offered by SPY at . Most attractive (to own) by this Figure 1 view is TTGT.
Comparison of characteristics of alternative investment stocks
The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every short-term stock investment. There are other aspects of comparison that this chart sometimes doesn’t communicate well, especially when broad market outlooks like SPY’s are involved. When questions about “likelihood” are present, other comparative tables, such as Figure 2, may be helpful.
The yellow highlighting of table cells emphasizes factors important to security valuations and the security’s TTGT, most promising quasi-capital gain as ranked in the column [R].
(used with permission)
Why do all these calculations?
The purpose of Figure 2 is to attempt universally comparable stock-by-stock answers of a) HOW SIGNIFICANT the potential price gain might be, b) how likely the gain will be a profitable experience, c) how soon this may happen, and d) what RISK of falling prices may be encountered during its holding period.
Readers familiar with our analytical methods after a quick review of Figure 2 you may wish to skip to the next section Price range forecast trends for TTGT.
The column headers in Figure 2 define the investment choice preference items for each row stock whose symbol appears to the left in the column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, depending on the specifics of its situation and the current forecast of the MM price range. Data in red numbers is negative, usually undesirable for “long” positions. Table cells with yellow fills contain data for stocks of primary interest and all issues in the ranking column, [R].
Column price range prediction limits [B] and [C] be defined by MM’s hedging actions to protect the firm’s capital which must be exposed to the risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by large $”institutional” clients.
[E] measures the potential upside risks for the short MM positions created to fill these orders and rewards the potentials for the buy positions thus created. Past forecasts like this provide a history of pertinent risk of lower prices for buyers. The most severe actually encountered are found in [F]during the periods of maintenance in the effort to reach [E] earnings. This is where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses.
The range index [G] indicates where today’s price stands in relation to the MM community’s predictions of the upper and lower bounds of future prices. Its figure is the percentage proportion of the full forecast low to high view below the current market price.
[H] indicates what proportion of the [L] sample of similar balance prior forecasts made gains by causing the price to reach its [B] target or be above sound [D] cost of entry at the end of a maximum holding period limit of 3 months. [I] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences.
What makes TTGT the most attractive in the group at this point is its core strength of 3.7 to 1 reward to risk ratio in [T].
Additionally, Reward~Risk trade-offs involve the use of [H] win odds with loss odds 100 – H as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F]for a combined yield score [Q]. The typical job retention period [J] on [Q] provides a symbol of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preference. Figure 2 is arranged by row on [R] among the alternative title candidates, with TTGT leading the way.
In addition to candidate-specific stocks, these selection considerations are provided for the averages of over 3,000 stocks for which MM price range forecasts are available today, and 20 of the top-ranked (per of) of these forecasts, as well as the forecast for the S&P 500 Index ETF as a proxy for the stock market.
The current SPY market index is not competitive as an investment alternative with its range index of 35 indicating 2/3 of its forecast range to the upside, but just over 3/ 4 of the previous SPY forecasts at this range index have produced profitable results, with enough losers to put its average into positive single digits.
As shown in column [T] in Figure 2, these levels vary considerably from stock to stock. What counts is the net result between the investment gains and losses actually realized following the forecasts, indicated in the column [I]. The odds of winning [H] indicates what proportion of the sample IRs of each stock was profitable. Ratings below 80% have often proven to be unreliable.
Price Range Prediction Trends for TTGT
(used with permission)
No it is not a “technical analysis chart”. I only display historical data. This is an image of behavioral analysis of stocks from the Market-Making community in the investment coverage of the subject. These actions define expected price change limits displayed as vertical bars with a thick dot at the closing price on the forecast date.
This is a real picture of future prices expected by experienced market professionals, not just a hope for a recurrence of the past. Expectations supported by large investment capital bets made to protect market makers or gain exclusive profit from risk taking.
The particular value of these images is their ability to immediately communicate the balance of expectant attitudes between optimism and pessimism. We quantify this balance by calculating how much of the price range uncertainty lies on the downside, between the current market price and the expected lower bound, called the range index [RI].
An RI of zero indicates that no further price declines are likely, but not guaranteed. The chances that 3 months will pass without reaching or exceeding the upper forecast limit or being at that time below the lower expected price (today) are quite low.
The probability function of price changes for TTGT is shown by the lower (vignette) frequency distribution in Figure 3 of RI values for the last 5 years with the current value indicated.
The multi-path valuations explored by the analysis covered in Figure 2 are a rich testament to the near-future value prospect advantage of a current investment in TechTarget, Inc. over other alternative investment candidates being compared.