The PSOE continues to lead but accuses wear and loses strength
The effect of the change of Government and the arrival of Pedro Sánchez to Moncloa has stopped in its tracks . The Executive has been splashed in recent weeks by scandals such as the Villarejo hearings or the controversy of Josep Borrell, as well as complex negotiations of the Budget, and that has had negative effects. Although the PSOE remains the preferred political force of the Spanish , the negative trend begins to be confirmed.
The Socialists would obtain 25.2% of the votes, but the blow is hard: they lose 2.5 points with respect to September . Moreover , according to the October survey of Metroscopia for Henneo (made between October 16 and 18) is the party that loses most compared to the previous month. In spite of this, yes, they are those that maintain a higher fidelity index within their voters. 62% who voted for Sanchez two years ago would do it now.
The picture is not much better for a PP that also goes less, although more timidly. The formation led by Pablo Casado remains as the second force with 22.6% of the votes , that is, two tenths less than last month (22.8%).
Citizens voters, towards Vox
Despite this, the popular ones are those with the lowest fidelity index: only 46% of those who voted for them in 2016 would do so again . In addition, it does not manage to stop the exit of votes towards Citizens , given that 17% of the popular voters of 2016 would now choose to vote for Albert Rivera’s party in the event that elections were held.
But the orange formation is not to celebrate for two reasons. The first, continues as the third party most supported by the Spanish but lost 1.6 points compared to September to stand at 19.2% . But on the other hand, it has become Vox’s main voting ground. And is that 8% of Citizens voters two years ago, would now go to support Santiago Abascal, whose party breaks with 5.1% of the vote as the fifth political force on the national scene.
Important rebound of Unidos Podemos
The fourth match is still Unidos Podemos , but this time the trend is positive for those of Pablo Iglesias . Not only are they the only training that improves, but it also does it in an impressive way: it would obtain 17.7% of the votes, 2.6 points more than the data for the month of September (15.1%). We can also be supported by 62% of the voters who elected them in the elections two years ago, with the party, along with the PSOE, with the highest level of loyalty among their constituents.
From this trend it can be concluded that the negotiation of the General State Budgets has been a boost for the formation of abode. In this sense, Unidos Podemos manages to recover the voters who in previous studies had migrated to the PSOE de Sánchez, especially since his rise to power , although still 12% (600,000 votes) of those who voted for Iglesias in the last general elections. I would bet now for the Socialist Party.
Beyond the percentages, it should be noted that the votes that PP and Citizens would get now does not vary significantly compared to the one that could be assumed a month ago: both formations would be in a kind of waiting time, the electoral period that now starts in Andalusia, maybe it could alter. In any case, the still minority irruption of Vox in the electoral board could contribute to a greater fragmentation of the center right field.
Trend towards the center right
With the data from this survey, the left and center-left ideological space (PSOE and Unidos Podemos) would group 42.9% of the votes (last September, at 42.8%) , while the center and center-right (Vox, PP and Citizens) to 46.9%. That is to say, the practical tie in terms of the theoretical electoral strength of both ideological spaces that was registered in September would now be unbalanced. In this context, the center-right maintains an electoral weight practically identical to that achieved when it came together in the 2000 elections, under the leadership of José María Aznar (44.5%).
Finally, the sum of the estimated vote for the two formations classified as new of the current four-party system (Citizens and United We Can, and without counting Vox for now) continues to shorten distances with the sum of votes that, at this moment, would be obtained, two traditional parties (PSOE and PP): 36.9% against 47.8% . Last month these figures were, respectively, 35.9% compared to 50.5%, and in the 2016 elections they were 34.1% compared to 55.7%. The distance between both blocks, which was 21.6 points two years ago, is now almost half (10.9 points).
Other images 2 Photos Pedro Sánchez, President of the Government, this Monday at the Moncloa. (EFE)